Over the course of the 2010 Federal election campaign, The Phantom, a long time political staffer with extensive experience in Parliament House will offer his thoughts and insights.

Day 24

The polls showed an election hanging in the balance today.  The privilege of Governing our nation is still up for grabs.

Julia Gillard is doing well in SA and VIC, while Tony Abbott and the Libs are hammering Labor in WA and QLD. 

The 50 – 50 State is NSW.

The problem for Julia Gillard is that although she has stronger support in VIC and SA, there are only one or two seats that are marginal enough for her to pick up.

In QLD there is a swag of seats on small margins, thrust into play following the betrayal of Kevin Rudd by Julia Gillard.  This could see Abbott win between 6 and 10 seats in the Sunshine State alone.

WA may only hold one extra seat for the Opposition in Hasluck, although Brand may still be in play.

NSW could be the key.  Labor has a chance in seats like McArthur and Hughes, while the Libs have a shot at Macquarie, Dobell, Robertson and even the 6% seat of Lindsay.

Although at this stage the bookies still favour a very slight win to Labor, it could end in a ‘1998 reversed’ for Labor.  In 1998, John Howard lost the popular vote but won enough votes in the right seats to win.  Gillard could win the popular vote, but in the wrong seats, losing Labor’s key marginals.

Labor has definitely sniffed the wind in NSW, especially in Western Sydney.  Julia Gillard today announced a rail link between Parramatta and Epping worth billions of dollars.  Of course the shovels won’t even hit the dirt for another four years, assuming Julia wins yet another election.

And the first part of the funding has to come from the NSW Government whose life expectancy is fairly short.

The media response was cynical, given State Labor’s complete inability to deliver any sort of efficient rail, road or port connection.

Although unavoidable, it was not smart for Gillard to front the media hand-in-hand with the NSW Premier, especially considering the recent by-election in Penrith saw a 20+% swing against Labor.

Labor also made an unemployment announcement today which sounded very similar to the policy already launched by the Coalition.

Abbott meanwhile was in SA outlining his water plan to save the Murray.  He was tailed by every Adelaide based Liberal MP along with Barnaby Joyce.

This shows some measure of the anxiety being experienced by Adelaide Liberals due to Labor’s strong showing in that State or in Jamie Briggs seat of Mayo – the Greens.

The vision was quite good although the bulk of the questions were on Labor’s infrastructure spend in Western Sydney.

The official campaign health debate took place in Canberra with both major Party’s spokespersons doing a good job.  Peter Dutton was measured and stayed on message – as did Labor’s Nicola Roxon.  Overall the affair was a little dull and lacked the controversy of last election’s health debate which featured Abbott telling Roxon she was talking ‘bullshit’ when she chided him for his tardiness.

Both leaders finished the day with a forum at the world famous Rooty Hill RSL.  Two hundred so-called swinging voters attended the US style Q & A where they had the opportunity to directly engage with ‘down to earth’ Aussies.

So important was this event; so crucial to the campaign; that it was only covered on Sky News and by the Daily Telegraph.

 Of course it will get some coverage during most electronic news services and in the daily papers, but it simply didn’t have the fanfare nor importance of a usual campaign debate.

The ads continue to ramp up.  The Libs positive ad seems to have toned down the silly jingle at the end although it’s still there.  Their attack ads are quite good with the focus being that it’s the same old Labor no matter who leads.

Labor continues its anti-Abbott ads, focusing on economic credentials.

Seat predictions:

ACT – no change.

NSW – Libs to pick up 5 (Possible seats – Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Gilmore, Robertson, Macquarie, Macarthur, Lindsay). ALP to pick up 1 (Possible seats - Hughes, Patterson).

QLD – Libs to pick up 7 (Possible seats – Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dawson, Flynn, Longman, Moreton, Dickson, Herbert).

SA – no change (Labor to possibly pick up one – Boothby)

VIC – Libs to pick up 1 (Possible seats – Deakin, Corangamite). ALP to pick up 2 (Possible seats – McEwen, La Trobe).

WA – Libs to pick up 1. (Possible seats – Hasluck, Brand).

TAS – no change.

NT – no change.

Day 23

Mark Latham is a true sociopath.  His well of bile is so deep and his hatred burns so brightly that it removes all sense of propriety, decency and above all strategy.

Latham is clearly trying to do as much as he can to derail Gillard’s campaign.  What he doesn’t understand that his continual bully boy tactics serve to drive the key demographic toward her that he lost during the 2004 campaign – women.

Apart from his wife, most women can’t stand Mark Latham and his dogging of Julia Gillard is only serving to generate sympathy for her among them.

Channel 9 obviously felt that they owed Gillard an easy run after unleashing the Liverpool Frankenstein on her campaign. Today’s morning news coverage was the largest puff piece on the PM seen during the course of the entire campaign.

The soft magazine run Gillard received on the press plane would even put the one sided news reports of Channel Ten’s Paul Bonjiorno to shame.

Added to this is the slight changing tide of woes as the Libs campaign suffered from an unfortunate case of the misplaced decimal point.

The sort of economic bungle with costings is death for any leader trying to maintain economic credibility; and Labor have already been running strongly on Abbott’s lack of interest in the economy throughout the campaign.

Abbott’s head kicker, Joe Hockey, mounted an impressive rear guard action on the issue, turning the blow torch back on Swan.  Unfortunately the damage was done and the focus of the news cycle remained on the economy.

Labor’s vision today also outmatch the Libs for once.  Gillard was shown cavorting with journalists and being given a standing ovation from school children at her old high school.

Abbott’s vision featured him in front of a Liberal Party backdrop defending his economic bungle; in front of a stall full of cows at the Ekka; and speaking at a dinner of private school donors at State Parliament.

Unlike Labor’s woes of late, the dark clouds of negative news parted for the Libs in the guise of Immigration Minister Scott Morrison meeting with the Government of Nauru on illegal boat arrivals – just as another illegal boat arrived off the coast.

Morrison looked like he was already a Minister as he seemed to negotiate a smooth and seamless agreement with Nauru.

The Coalition launched their broadband policy today, though the noise of economic bungles drowned it out somewhat.

Gillard launched her water policy regarding the Murray in South Australia, which was received a little better locally, though the Mark Latham affair also distracted journalists.

The whole news cycle was then thrown another curve ball as the UN announced it had appointed Kevin Rudd as an adviser on climate change.  Just when you thought it was safe, Rudd is back in the headlines.

It’s unclear how this news will affect the Labor campaign, if at all, however Tony Abbott’s retort that he will be a ‘part time Minister’ in a Gillard Government was snappy.

The Coalition ads are still being out played 4:1 by Labor, although Labor continue to play the same economic ad over and over, which can lead to negative feedback from voters.

ACT – no change.

NSW – Libs to pick up 4 (Possible seats – Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Gilmore, Robertson, Macquarie, Macarthur). ALP to pick up 1 (Possible seats - Hughes, Patterson).

QLD – Libs to pick up 6 (Possible seats – Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dawson, Flynn, Longman, Dickson, Herbert).

SA – no change (Labor to possibly pick up one – Boothby)

VIC – Libs to pick up 1 (Possible seats – Deakin). ALP to pick up 2 (Possible seats – McEwen, La Trobe).

WA – Libs to pick up 1. (Possible seats – Hasluck, Brand).

TAS – no change.

NT – no change.

Day 22

The campaign has entered the crucial last two weeks.

It is a common held view amongst experienced pundits and pollsters that most swinging voters make up their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign.

We will therefore see the advertising machines of both parties move into overdrive in the coming days.  With its coffers brimming with cash from mandatory union donations, Labor will outspend the Libs 3:1.

Both leaders are campaigning in states they need to win or hold today.

Gillard is in Perth, still trying to counter the negative effects of the mining tax on the seats of Swan, Brand, Hasluck, Canning and Stirling.  At this stage the big money is on Labor holding Brand but losing Hasluck to the Libs.

Gillard is also trying to stop Labor’s bleeding on education following the scathing coverage she has received in the media on her BER programme.  Today she has announced more funding for literacy and numeracy and to fight truancy.

Abbott is in Brisbane, campaigning amongst the Brisbane marginals he needs to win and hold like Moreton, Dickson, Bowman and Brisbane.

The polls are showing he will do well in the Sunshine State and today he is pressing the flesh at the ‘Ekka’, Brisbane’s famous show.

The polls today show a slight move back to Labor.  On the crucial ‘preferred PM’ figures, Gillard maintains a strong lead on Abbott.  This will be concerning for the challenger as Australian campaigns have become increasingly presidential; people vote for the leader, not their local Member.

The ‘two party preferred’ figures in Newspoll show the race is still neck and neck, although the primary votes will be concerning for Labor, with their numbers still languishing in the low forties.

During the last two weeks of the campaign, the Phantom will make predictions on numbers, State by State.

ACT – no change.

NSW – Libs to pick up 4 (Possible seats – Eden-Monaro, Bennelong, Gilmore, Robertson, Macquarie, Macarthur). ALP to pick up 1 (Possible seats - Hughes, Patterson).

QLD – Libs to pick up 6 (Possible seats – Leichhardt, Brisbane, Dawson, Flynn, Longman, Dickson, Herbert).

SA – no change.

VIC – Libs to pick up 1 (Possible seats – Deakin). ALP to pick up 1 (Possible seats – McEwen or La Trobe).

WA – Libs to pick up 1. (Possible seats – Hasluck, Brand).

TAS – no change.

NT – no change.

Day 21

It’s official.  The house of Gillard is haunted.

No matter how hard she and her minders try to exorcise the ghost of leaders past, they continue to terrorise the Prime Minister and her campaign.

Rather than fully casting out the ghost of Rudd, on Friday she tried to turn the former leader in to ‘Casper the Friendly Ghost’ having him join her for a staged ‘business meeting’ in Brisbane.

The whole set-up looked ridiculous and Casper still managed to chill the room to near freezing.

Australians possibly have the best ‘wank’ radar in the world and the vision of Rudd and Gillard sitting right next to each other at the meeting will have sent voters radars pinging off the scale.

The overall mistake Gillard and her minders have made is that having Rudd in the headlines will only maintain the rage amongst Queensland voters and to everyone else simply looks like she can’t handle the top job by herself – will the real Prime Minister please stand up?

Enter ghost number two.  Mark Latham floated into a press conference with the Prime Minister on Saturday and then called her bluff at the Brisbane ‘Ekka’ show while she was busy pressing the flesh with constituents.

This destroyed any potential positive vision Gillard could have hoped to achieve on the evening news in Queensland and added to the tragic Labor soap opera.  To squeeze lemon juice all over Labor’s open wounds, Mark Latham gripped the PM in a classic Liverpool handshake. 

Apparently the boy from Green Valley had taken umbrage with the fact that Julia’s minders had complained to Channel Nine that Latham had been signed on as a journalist for 60 minutes.  Latham decided the best time to question the PM on this issue was while she was meeting constituents in front of the entire press pack.

Someone call the Vatican – Labor needs a professional demon chaser to get rid of these ghosts!

Meanwhile Abbot was cruising, ironically launching a bushfire policy in Victoria – the only way that could have been more stinging would have been to launch it in Brisbane!

The Libs had their official campaign launch today.  Abbott and his team took great pleasure in taunting the ALP about their current woes.

Abbott’s prize line was “Isn’t it great being a unified party, where my deputy is loyal, the former leader is a friend and the former Prime Minister is a hero.”

With that line alone, Abbott scored the media points and won the day for the Liberal Party.

Not surprisingly Newslimited newspapers ran a feature revealing the inner workings of the Abbott camp.

Unfortunately the piece was penned by the self-proclaimed National political expert Peter van Onselen.  ‘Wank radars at the ready!’

Onselen was a former Howard Government staffer who, once trained in the Libs database computer programme, drafted a ‘ground breaking expose’ on the electoral databases used by the major parties with particular focus on the Libs.  A self serving act of betrayal has not been seen since…, well… who is our Prime Minister again?

Onselen highlighted Tony O’Leary as the media mastermind behind the Abbot campaign.  While it’s true the veteran warhorse from the Howard years is advising on the campaign, he is far from the sole media strategist. 

He correctly highlighted Mark ‘Tex’ Textor as the Libs polling lamplight – not exactly a groundbreaking revelation considering Tex has been involved in every Coalition campaign since 1996.

He also highlighted Senator Cory Bernardi and former Senator Nick Minchin.  While it’s true they were supporters and possible numbers men for Abbott’s rise to the top job, any thought that they’re daily players in the campaign are ridiculous.

The only real ‘scoop’ scored by Onselen was the inclusion of Simone Holzapfel of Shac Communications. Simone is a long time confidant and pseudo-adviser to Abbott. She certainly knows her stuff politically, is highly media savvy, very well respected and an invaluable asset in the Abbott camp.

Onselen’s article is meant to show his ‘intimate knowledge’ of the Libs campaign but is really nothing more than a straw clutching exercise.

The true measure of the resurgence of the Libs campaign hopes and the rise of Abbott is the former soldiers of the Howard years who have returned to the trenches.  After a successful time in the private sector, Abbott secured the return of Claire Kimball, his former press secretary; retained the services of Andrew Hurst, a former staffer in Howard’s media office as well as a dozen other long time, well known, former Ministerial staffers. 

Privacy bids silence on these pages, but the number of former Howard advisers who have returned to battle Labor is not only testament to the faith they have in Abbott, but also the strong chance they believe he has of winning Government.

With the campaign launch earlier today, it’s likely we will see a new tranche of Liberal Party positive ads and ALP attack ads during prime time.

With a week to go until Labor’s official campaign launch, Labor will be hoping their team can banish the ghosts and have as a successful a launch as the Libs today.

Day 18

The ghost of the Kevin returned today with a statement on radio claiming he is over his anger and doesn’t want Abbott to ‘slide’ into Parliament.

There will be questions as to whether he can maintain his new found charity toward the Prime Minister for the next three weeks.  Gillard will at least be hoping his goodwill rubs off in key seats in QLD, such as Herbert in Townsville where she campaigned today.

It’s still risky for the PM to use Rudd on the hustings and the real test will be how the ghost of Rudd plays out at Labor’s launch in a week’s time.

Rudd made an announcement late in the day about how he is going to ‘help’ in the campaign.  He refused to take questions in a sign that he and the Labor minders are still concerned that his ‘bucket load of anger’ may bubble to the surface under pressure. 

He couldn’t let the moment pass without thanking the ‘little kids’ who wrote him personal notes following his fall from power.  Gillard must have felt like the wicked witch from the Wizard of Oz following that remark.

Rudd confirmed he will join the campaign outside his seat – when and where is still a mystery.

His speech was very Prime Ministerial.  Ironically he did claim that ‘he can’t remain silent’ Tony Abbott and then refused to answer any questions. The media of course weren’t happy with situation and badgered poor Keive for an answer.

Abbott launched his $3 billion health policy today with money for new beds, more nurses and better Medicare services.  On the surface it seems like a good policy and should play out well in the media.

Of course Abbott was dogged by Labor’s ads on health which bend the truth enough to suggest that Abbott ripped $1 billion out of the health system as Minister.

Unfortunately for Mr Abbott, the blow back from the links between the Libs pollsters Crosby Textor and the Tabaco lobby still ran in the papers, casting and ironic shadow over his health announcement.

The Libs also came under fire for their debt ad.  Newslimited newspapers claim the Libs have fudged the figures in their ad to paint a overly dire picture of Australia’s Government debt position.

The smelly hippie brigade chose to make a nuisance of themselves at the National Press Club during a debate between the Liberals Scott Morrison and Labor’s Sylvester the Cat… Tony Burke.

To his credit Scott Morrison soldiered on with grim determination.

Labor’s new ‘we saved the day’ ad on the economy and the GFC uses great imagery, excellent tone and the right message.  The only drawback for Gillard is that some may attribute all that hard work to Kevin Rudd and not her.  This could backfire slightly for Gillard.

The Liberal Party You Tube ads on More Taxes and More Debt is quite good.  It flips through all the faces of Labor who have been responsible for waste such as Garrett and Wong.  A good reminder of the mistakes under Labor.

Paul Keating reared his head again today on the issue of privacy.  Fairly benign although having one of the most unpopular Labor Prime Ministers in the headlines is potentially not a good look.

Day 17

Newspoll brought more dark clouds for Gillard today.  The swing is on in NSW and QLD as far as two party preferred vote is concerned.  The only consolation for the PM is that she is still slightly ahead as preferred PM across the board.  This may be enough to allow her to hold on to a handful of the key seats she needs in these two key states.

The so far bland campaign took a bizarre turn with the tobacco companies announcing they would unleash an ad campaign against Labor.  The Daily Telegraph even reported that Liberal Party strategists had been involved in developing the ads. 

This is a risk for Abbott, considering the stigma attached to smoking.  Abbott will have to distance himself somewhat from this campaign and try to keep an even keel; not offending smokers and not offending health advocates.

Gillard hit the hustings in QLD today, safe in the knowledge that Kevin Rudd is tucked up in bed recovering from his apparent operation.  It’s sure bet that when Kevin Rudd is up and campaigning again, you won’t see Gillard in QLD for love nor money.

Although Gillard was campaigning in QLD, trying to claw back her approval rating in that State, there were still questions about her lack of presence in NSW.

Three NSW Ministers are scheduled to appear with NSW Premier Kristina Keneally over the coming days - the question is will Julia Gillard appear with her? 

When asked about the announcement made in Maroubra NSW, Gillard claimed that Keneally had to celebrate her wedding anniversary instead – hmmm… unless it was a key milestone anniversary I would wager this is a little too convenient.

Gillard announced a new pitch to families with yet another tweak.  If elected Labor will allow families receiving Family Benefits to access some payments earlier to meet unexpected costs, up to 7.5%.  In addition, families due to receive the Baby Bonus will be able to draw down $500 early to prepare for the birth.

Abbott had great vision in the Queensland seat of Dickson, surrounding himself with amicable oldies as he made a seniors working announcement.

Flanked by Peter Dutton and the number one poster girl of the older generation, Bronwyn Bishop, the Opposition Leader announced that any employer taking on a senior Australian in receipt of age benefits will be entitled to a bonus of $3,250 if the employee stays on for 6 months.

Gillard again pushed Abbott on a second debate, stating that if ‘Sunday was no good, why not Monday’.

Gillard will likely pursue Abbott throughout the week on a debate. The only risk for her is that she ends up looking childish, while Abbott moves on to the more serious issues.

Ads remain the same today.

Day 16

A second debate!?

Nice trump card by Julia, but an equally nice parry by Tony Abbott.

Gillard threw out the challenge to debate Abbott any time any where on the topic of economic management.  Her initial invite was for this Sunday which was very cheeky, considering it is the date for the Libs campaign launch.

She changed that to any where any time.  Gillard’s strategy is not necessarily to score another debate but rather to try and make Abbott squirm in front of the cameras.  President Lyndon B Johnson once asked his press secretary to tell the press his opponent had relations with a pig. 

His press secretary protested that he couldn’t possibly do that as it wasn’t true.  The President answered ‘I know; I just want to see him defend it’.

Abbott’s defence was quite good.  He claimed he wasn’t going to give Julia the help she wanted to resurrect her campaign, simply because she’d changed her mind.

Most of the campaigning today was in Queensland, which is proving to be the real battleground.  Labor is running scared in the Sunshine State, mainly because they saw how the hard parochialism hit the Coalition in the 2007 election.

Abbott finally launched his paid parental leave policy, perhaps without the warm welcome he was expecting.  While the policy’s target, (women with dependants or women looking to start a family), will still welcome the plan, the delayed start and reduction in the levy looks messy.

And messy is exactly how it the media saw it, some panning it as Abbott sucumbing to ‘policy on the run’.

The ALP launched a new television ad claiming Abbott would ‘pull the plug’ on a raft of programs, again particularly focusing on health.

The Libs have been running hard with ads in QLD, highlighting Gillard as the assassin of Rudd and aligning her with Anna Bligh who is still poison to QLD voters.  This strategy will continue throughout the campaign and is likely to hurt Labor significantly.

AWU and Miners ads running across the board.

Day 15

Finally we are to see the real Julia. – whatever that is.  Apparently Julia Gillard has had so little control over the direction of Labor’s campaign that she has had to wrestle it from the powerbrokers so that she can bless the Australian public with her real and genuine self.

A cynic might say…, actually, no, everybody can see – she’s in full blown panic.

On the Today show she rambled about no longer being ‘risk adverse’, about not running a ‘traditional campaign’, about how she was going to get out and be ‘real’ with the Australian people.

The reality is that polls have been consistently moving in Tony Abbott’s favour over the last two weeks and Labor and the Prime Minister are starting to panic.

A casual observer may see this as the slow meltdown of the Labor Party and the death knell on their chances of being re-elected.

This is not the case – week three is often the watershed where fortunes can turn and victory can swing like a pendulum.

During week three of the 2004 campaign, as Mark Latham was winning the television war and the polls were swinging in his favour, Prime Minister Howard called an emergency meeting of his Chief of Staff, Arthur Sinodinos; Principal Private Secretary Tony Nutt; Federal Director Brian Loughnane; and Liberal Party President, Shane Stone at Campaign Headquarters in Melbourne.

The marathon seven hour meeting apparently saw Mr Howard bouncing off the walls, utterly flustered at the thought of losing to Mark Latham.  However the meeting gave birth to the strategies – including the now famous Tasmanian forestry plan – that eventually returned Mr Howard to the Lodge.

This is the rejuvenation Julia Gillard will be hoping for.

Her strategy, however, is questionable.  She is going to ‘engage’ with the Australian people.  She is going to ‘lead the national debate on climate change’ and get a ‘consensus from the Australian people’.  She is no longer going to run a ‘traditional’ campaign.

The question this begs is… what the hell is she talking about?  Does the average punter know what a ‘traditional campaign’ is?  How exactly are we going to be able to tell she is different? 

Unfortunately her approach still smacks of panic and not of rejuvenation. 

And yet, there are still three weeks to go.

Her education announcement today was well targeted at families in Western Sydney – an area she needs to win.  The policy itself was simply another tweak – extending Family Tax Benefit Part A to school students between year 10 and 12 to a maximum of $150 a fortnight.

A good policy but nothing to right home about.

The news was much better for Tony Abbott today.  Two Party preferred at 50 – 50 in the News Limited Poll was exactly what the Coalition needed at the halfway mark.

And it showed in the Opposition Leaders demeanour.  He laughed and joked with constituents and the media in Cairns; he looked very confident. 

More to the point, he continues to match his announcements perfectly with seats he needs to win.

The $64 million tourism announcement in Cairns will not only help Warren Entch in Leichhardt, but solidify the effects of Abbott’s visit to Mackay as well as helping in Townsville.

By contrast the Greens launch on the weekend may go against Labor, particularly amongst voters in key suburban seats in Western Sydney and Eastern Victoria etc. 

Bob Brown announced if Labor was re-elected they would seek to prevent any sort of fishing on 30% of the Australian Coast Line, crippling the great Australian past time.

He also announced he would push to legalise gay marriage.

Neither of these policies will go down well in the pseudo-conservative outer metro seats of most capital cities.

This may cause Labor to take a hit for doing a preference deal with the Greens.

The ad campaign has not been over the top this election and it appears that both parties will be keeping their powder dry until the last two weeks.

The mining company ads commenced today.  The imagery is very good, playing on the fact that the new Mining Tax will ‘whack’ ordinary Australians across the board.

Unfortunately – it uses another silly bloody song!  There is no telling where this sudden fancy for ridiculous songs has come from among advertising agencies, but whoever is advocating them should be reassigned to directing furniture commercials.

The Union ads are still running strong, but they are becoming lazy – they are not reacting to the fact that Workchoices has gone off the radar and the attacks on the Libs over the old Howard policy are no longer working.

Regardless, how both the major parties fare this week could determine the outcome of the campaign.

Day 12

STOP PRESS – KEVIN RUDD RUSHED OUT OF JULIA’S WAY…I MEAN RUSHED OUT OF THE CAMPAIGN… I MEAN RUSHED TO HOSPITAL.

Kevin Rudd was rushed to hospital late today apparently with a gallbladder issue.  Apparently he will be out and campaigning again once he is better.

A cynic might say that it’s highly convenient that old Kevie is shut up in hospital at the same time Julia Gillard is coping serious flack from the ghost of Rudd.

A cynic might further say that it is not beyond the Labor Party to find a way to get Kevie out of the headlines and off the campaign and that hospitalisation is an almost ‘unquestionable’ way of doing so.

A cynic may go even further to state that Kevin Rudd may spend ‘quite a while’ in hospital and quietly return to campaigning with very little fanfare.

A cynic may say these things. 

Regardless, Julia Gillard will now get the clear air she needs to try and cut through on some of her key policy platforms on the economy, jobs and infrastructure.

The ghost of the Kevin will take at least until Monday to be fully exorcised, but will eventually disappear.

Of course that depends on whether or not Mark Latham decides to appear on television over the weekend and call Kevin Rudd a leaking snake again.

And not a moment too soon.  Tony Abbott has captured all the good vision again today, cooking up a storm in the Meals on Wheels kitchen and kicking in $2 million bucks to the much valued charity.

He also launched a left of field storm water recycling policy with little fanfare. 

He played a nice trump card on support for kids with disabilities – a disabilities education card worth $20,000 to pay for the child’s education in the most appropriate way.

He also pulled no punches on the shambles that is the ALP campaign at the moment, running the famous line ‘If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the country.’

Gillard spent the day in Perth trying to relaunch a few cold polices.  She made another ‘tweak’ announcement on the National Broadband Network and a nothing announcement on a highway project, which was basically that the Government had previously agreed to contribute 80% to the project and that NOW they will contribute… well… 80%.

However the importance of the infrastructure announcement in Perth was the marginal seat of Hasluck and the Resource Rents Tax.

The message Gillard was trying to get across to the constituents of Hasluck was ‘support the mining tax and all this could be yours!’  If they want infrastructure improvements they have to support the tax.

New ads will roll against Labor over the coming days.  The mining companies have decided they will ramp up their ads once more, particularly targeting Western Australia.  This may be too much for poor old Sharon Jackson in Hasluck, with the mining tax the largest issue in WA.

The Liberals have released their latest attack ad on You Tube.  It’s a fantastic sequel to the ‘Kevin O’Lemon’ ad that runs along the lines of ‘it wasn’t just Kevin… they’re all lemons!’  Lets hope they run it on network television because it’s a cracker.

Labor is still running its anti-Abbott hospital ads – the polls would indicate at the moment that despite being a good ad, they’re not biting.

And the boa is back – Cheryl Kernot has announced she will run as an independent in NSW for the Senate… (sigh)… does that mean Keating will put his Armani suit back on and nominate? Will Fraser leap out of his wheelchair and nominate as an independent Senator for East Timor?  Will Gough storm through the doors of his nursing home to nominate for something somewhere? 

If Pauline Hanson has taught us nothing, and she hasn’t, it’s that old pollies should know when they’re done. 

A cynic might say that Cheryl simply needs the cash.  If she gets a certain percentage of votes in the Senate, she’s entitled to a reasonable sum of money from the electoral commission.  It’s a loophole designed to help serious independents and parties fund their operations and saw Pauline Hanson net around $200,000.

A cynic might say something like that.

Day 11

The morning newspapers brought good tidings for both leaders today with the front page of the Melbourne Herald Sun touting Labor’s new plan to crack down on knife crime; the front page of the Daily Telegraph slamming Gillard for ‘opposing’ a pension increase in Cabinet; and a Morgan Poll claiming that the leader of the Opposition had narrowed the gap significantly on the Prime Minister.

The front page of the Daily Telegraph was particularly unflattering for the PM.  The picture of the PM was airbrushed to turn her red locks grey, and although the story was about the pension, it was clearly a dig at Ms Gillard’s photo shoot in Woman’s Weekly.

The wisdom of Gillard’s appearance in Woman’s Weekly is questionable.  Although she looked good and it clearly helped her seem less steely and more womanly, she is also the Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia in the middle of an election campaign.  To be elected to the highest office is a solemn privilege. 

The ‘puff’ of Woman’s Weekly is not necessarily congruent with that and may go someway to aid Tony Abbott in looking the more serious candidate.

Some may remember the infamous Cheryl Kernot feather boa shoot in the same publication and the ‘wonders’ it did for her career.

By contrast, Gillard’s policy announcement today was very serious.  Funding and assistance for children and adults with disabilities.  Although most of the announcement was spent touting Labor’s so-called achievements, she announced a tweaking of the $12,000 early intervention money for children with a diagnosed disability by extending it to their seventh birthday.

There were a swag of other ‘announcements’ the two central planks of which were an ‘inquiry’ and a ‘road map’.  Both of which are bureaucratic ways of announcing something without really announcing anything.

That being said her announcements were met with applause from a sympathetic audience which makes for good tv grabs.

Abbott faired little better today, announcing major funding to tackle gang and knife violence – an issue relevant in most Australian States.  Unfortunately he was beaten to the punch by Labor on the front page of the Herald Sun…not a great look.

At the press conference he did try hard to hide the grin when Seven’s Mark Riley asked him what he thought of the Morgan poll results showing he was gaining rapidly.

It can be a subtle pick up for most punters but the battle for ‘expectations management’ is huge.  If swinging voters sense that one particular party believes they have the election ‘in the bag’ their reaction can be to cast a protest vote.  If enough swinging voters do this, an upset can result – just ask Victoria’s Jeff Kennett.

Abbott swallowed his smirk just in time to still claim underdog status.

Gillard’s announcements were somewhat overshadowed, though not necessarily by bad news.  Star of the Iguana Gate Scandal, Belinda Neal, announced she would not run as an independent.  Coincidently, her husband, John Dellabosca announced that he was quitting politics to take up a plumb job outside of State Parliament. Labor being famous for deals, the coincidence is small.

Either way it’s good news for Gillard, although the similarity in names of Neal and the Labor candidate Deb O’Neal is not helpful.

Ads remain the same.  Sunday may see a new tranche of ads launched during Prime Time.

The only action from the Green’s was support from the media in claiming he deserves to debate Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard as well.  This challenge is made every campaign and is never taken up.

Day 10

The icebergs continue to rock the good ship Gillard.  Newslimited papers are awash with stories of Gillard poo-pooing Labor’s parental leave plan in Cabinet; the BER dividing school communities; and the Auditor General’s report that the ALP’s stimulus package was directed mainly at safe Labor seats – who would have thunk it!

Gillard’s vision for the day was a press conference with no backdrop and the launch of her water recycling policy in Adelaide, shoulder to shoulder with Penny Wong - another childless single woman from Labor… not the best look.

The PM got very fiery following the rate and tone of media questions at the press conference she called to answer the allegations on her lack of support for Labor’s parental leave scheme in Cabinet.  With three weeks to go, the damage this particular leak has caused will fade, however Gillard’s explanation was weak and she looked flustered.

Meanwhile Abbott was carrying on, with an announcement that the Libs will reduce Company Tax if elected.  Gillard panned it as irresponsible and that a ‘primary school student’ could do better - not a bad line.

Abbott, however, looked strong delivering his lines on the tax cut, flanked by two solid operators; Joe Hockey and Bruce Billson.  It would appear that Abbott has definitely claimed today’s high ground on tax.

Swan labelling the paid maternity policy of the Opposition as the Coles and Woollies tax is a pretty good line, though most will find it hard to understand the link as part of a 10 second grab on the evening news.

No new ads today.

Day 9

Things not going too well on the good ship Gillard.

Iceberg number 1 – The Miners: Buoyed by Bob Brown’s comments that the Greens will try to suck more out of mining companies when they attain the balance of power, the small miners (or not so small) have launched a new tranche of ads opposing the mining tax.

Iceberg number 2 – Kevin07:  The ghost of PMs past will not go away.  Rudd continues to attract a large media scrum in QLD.  Belied by his reticence to answer media questions is Rudd’s natural vindictiveness.  His seat is fairly safe and the sympathy vote will all but assure him of a comfortable margin. Yet Rudd chooses to venture into the public eye on a daily basis, visiting hospitals, schools and shopping centres.  He knows full well that his exposure maintains the sympathy vote against Gillard in QLD.

Iceberg number 3 – Getting cosy with Anna Bligh:  Bligh is currently poison in QLD. Though the announcement for a new rail link in the seats of Bowman, Petrie and Dickson (key marginals she needs to win) was good strategically, the newspapers are full of the Redhead and the Redundant standing side by side; pictorially not a smart move.

Iceberg number 4 – Laurie Oakes:  It’s no secret that Kevin07 had a special love affair with Laurie Oakes.  Oakes is probably the most even handed journo on the Hill, but he does have a penchant for Labor Prime Minister’s who appreciate the finer things in life.  In the past he has waxed lyrical about being invited to the Lodge by Prime Minister Keating to listen to classical music and sip cognac. 

That may explain the deluge of mud being slung at Gillard via Laurie Oakes fed by old Pixie.  Gillard was again pinned by Oakes on not supporting Labor’s maternity leave plan and pension increase when in Cabinet.

K-Rudd knows this is a weak point for Gillard as it directly affects the female vote.

Hell hath no fury like a woman or dainty former Prime Minister scorned.

By contrast Abbott had a good day meeting with disgruntled miners in Mackay.  Less relevant to the media but smarter by far for the Opposition leader was his visit with members of the local fishing industry, both commercial and tourist.

This has been a sleeping giant in coastal centres right up and down the East Coast of Australia.  Everyone agrees on the need for strong conservation, however the continual removal of fishing grounds for both commercial and recreational anglers based on flimsy evidence and an overt Greens Party agenda has hit coastal communities hard.

The footage of Abbott cleaning fish and slapping the backs of local fishos was perfect for a seat like Dawson and should be repeated in seats like Moreton, Leichhardt and Eden-Monaro.
CFMEU ads continue with little bite.

Nurses ads are still strong and a danger in the health debate for the Coalition.

Day 8

Abbott had some great coverage in day care centre with his wife Margie.  Some may paint this as a cynical attempt to paint Abbott as the responsible family man and Julia Gillard as the unmarried, barren PM who can’t relate to struggling Australian families – but its working.

The Newspoll shows the gap between the two parties and two leaders narrowing.  Abbott is being more himself and campaigning to his strengths which is drawing a real contrast between himself and the PM.

Gillard is struggling a little to paint herself as really understanding what Australian families are going through.

However she smartly played to her and Labor’s strength today, backing up the NSW Nurses Union ads with a visit to a local hospital, although promising a paltry extra sum of money should Labor be re-elected.

Late in the day, Gillard made a smart pitch for the male vote, holding further talks with Frank Lowy regarding Australia’s bid to host one of the upcoming World Cups.  An easy attempt to garner favour with the blokes.

Big question still hangs on what the mining companies will do in terms of Bob Browns promise to put more taxes on mining.  If they decide to ramp up their ad campaign again – which they should do if they were smart – it could seriously affect Labor’s chances in key mining seats and almost all of WA.

No new ads today, with Labor and the unions outgunning the Libs on quantity, but not quality.

Day 7

The Great Debate should rather be renamed ‘The Great Attempt at Throwing Out Cheap One Liners’. To be honest though, we voters did that to ourselves.

Kevin 07 became the master of the one line news grab and Australian ‘working families’ washed down ‘ending the blame game’ and being ‘fair dinkum’ with their evening meal as they watched the news.

How then can we blame Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard for running the same one-line-per-policy ‘news grab’ style techniques that worked so well for Kevin 07?

It was a clear win for Tony Abbott, although neither leader can take much comfort from their performance.  One has only to look at the debate ‘smash up derby’ that was the 1996 Howard – Keating debate to see how tame the whole affair has become.

Masterchef stole the lime light of the evening, however we saw a slew of new ads emerge during the cooking show’s golden prime time slot.

The Nurses NSW ad is very good and yet very stupid.  While the vision and design is outstanding, it has nailed their colours to the mast on who they encourage people to vote for.  Considering most funding for NSW hospitals comes from the State Government and NSW is about to change to Liberal – perhaps not the smartest political decision to so vehemently support Gillard.

Of course it was all revealed to be a total stitch up with the NSW Nurses Union when it was revealed to the Press Gallery late that evening that Julia would be visiting a hospital full of smiling nurses the day after the ads launched.  Of course this would be too ‘partisan’ a point to make for the Canberra Gallery.

The CFMEU continue their dogged attempts to keep the ghost of Workchoices in the headlines, though whether anyone is taking their scare campaign seriously is hard to tell.

The best ad launch of the night surprisingly goes to the Libs for their negative ‘we can’t afford Labor’ advertisement. 

It seems the black leather jacket wearing guru of the Libs advertising company saw the affect the mining companies ad featuring ordinary Australians had on Rudd’s approval ratings and ran with a strikingly similar style.

The voice over is perfect, the people chose are all in the Libs base and target market group and the message plays to where Labor has fallen down.

An effective change from the silly song in the first tranche of Lib ads.

Day 4

Not much campaigning today. 

The funeral of an Australian serviceman has grabbed the attention and both leaders have attended the funeral.

Lest we Forget.

Fiji Prime Minister tries to muscle Gillard and the Government – not likely to hurt Gillard.

Rudd and Latham still running in the news cycle which is not good news for Gillard.

Both Gillard and Abbott will hit the streets hard on Friday and then probably attend a few sporting matches over the weekend and prepare for the debate on Sunday night which very few people will watch due to the final of Masterchef.

The Phantom will be on hiatis until Monday.

Day 3

Finally Tony Abbott gets some good vision. The images of the Opposition leader running along with school kids and chucking a football were exactly what he needed.

His education policy announcements were right on message and on the money in terms of aligning with the target of the Liberal Party, families with dependants.

Abbott’s appearance on Hey Hey It’s Saturday was a good idea by his advisers, although the ‘funny hat’ danger always exists i.e. if things had gone badly, they could have gone very very badly and Abbott could have looked like a fool.

The press gallery comments regarding the appearances were as expected, cynical and dismissive.  The gallery, however, were not the intended target audience.

He got through the segment unscathed and it was probably successful in making him seem more human. 

The ghost of workchoices started to vanish in the morning news cycle and by the evening was almost disapated. 

Labor had its own ghosts to deal with – Mark Latham resurfaced to challenge Julia Gillard on the issue of immigration numbers, which naturally segwaed into border protection and people smuggling – the natural territory of the Libs.

Although it may seem a headache for Julia, it could be more of a problem for Tony Abbott.

Latham was so disliked by the general public, particularly by women, that his interference in the campaign may inadvertently push swinging female voters to Gillard’s corner.

Of more concern for Gillard is the media scrum following Rudd.  Rudd is carrying the attention without making muchado about it; although he is still having trouble hiding his smug smile.

The issue is that the more Rudd graces the televisions, especially in Queensland, the more sympathy he will generated as the dipossed Prime Minister by an ambitious, unwed, childless woman.  All stigmas which count against her.

Rudd’s presence in the campaign posses a very real threat in key seats in Queensland like Moreton, Brisbane, Dawson and Dickson.

The Lib ads are still few and far between relative to Labor, which was to be expected. Labor always outspends the Libs 2:1 due to huge donations from the union movement.

The stupid song still follows each ad. Hopefully the Libs will hold focus groups during the campaign and the song will be axed.

Labor’s ads are still quality although the Phantom awaits a negative ad with a little more creativity.

Libs have not yet started their negative ads and will likely hold off their barrage until the final two weeks.

Day 2

The Greens have surprised everyone and confirmed a deal with Labor for preferences… again. 

In reality, the Greens are the far left of the Labor Party and nothing more.  Unfortunately they are the ‘trendy’ party for young people and latté sipping doctor’s wives of the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney. 

Their insidious strategy is to maintain that they are predominantly an ‘environmental’ party.  However, from a Christian perspective, the Green’s have the most humanistic, anti-Christian policies of any party, being pro medicare funded abortion, pro drug legalisation, pro gay marriage etc. 

Ironically from an environmental perspective, the anti-forest clearing policies advocated by the Greens, were cited as one of the reasons for the tragic Victorian bushfires by the Royal Commission.

On the ALP front, Gillard has shown the natural hypocrisy of being in Government on the issue of debates.  Last campaign Labor were clamouring for three debates, but of course, once in power, they realise that the debates generally favour the Opposition.
Not surprising really and hard to fault her on it – any Government would do the same.

Gillard appeared in the seat of Macquarie in the morning trailed by the incumbent member (after the redistribution), the Libs Louise Marcus.  Would have been good to see some fireworks, but Louise is a bit too nice for that.

Abbott, Hockey and Robb’s performance at the first policy announcement of the day was adequate.  The savings cuts were politically smart, getting rid of Rudd’s pet love of funding for a seat on the security council for example.

Hockey’s quip about Paris Hilton being to celibacy what Labor is to budget surplus seemed a bit too cute but was still good for a media grab.  Of course the political correctness police were on hand to question Abbott about his smile at the comment – unwarranted feminism has truly killed the sense of humour of the Canberra press gallery.

The ghost of Workchoices remained though it faded somewhat – Abbott will be hoping it continues to fade over the coming days.

ALP positive ads still good – negative hospital ads a bit boring.

Libs positive ads still the opposite of heterosexual.

Lib negative ad not yet emerged.

Day 1

ALP positive ads are awesome, however they are almost a carbon copy of the Libs homeland style ads from 2001 and 2004 i.e the blue on blue type; the pictures of patrol boats and docks – (ironic considering Labor and the unions opposed the reform of the waterfront and that more boats have arrived under three years of Labor’s watch than after 11 years of the Coaltion.  Gillard has had her voice softened which was a must and looks very good on camera.

Labor also has had excellent vision on the first day with Gillard visiting a family while Abbott’s only meet and greet was at a mall, overshadowed by a Labor staffer appearing in budgie smugglers.  Libs need to get Abbott into the front line community areas and record some good vision. 

Libs positive ads suck.  The vision is ok, but the song is ridiculous and not strong in any way.  Tony needs to cut through as a strong alternative, playing to his strengths.  This stupid song does not paint him as strong, but rather screams ‘try hard.’

The media has once again been either duped by Labor or complicit with their spin doctors in asking continuous questions about Workchoices, giving the ALP a free kick.  In fairness to them however, the media do know that they only have to push a little bit and Tony or one of his team will bust out on this issue, contradicting the party line which makes for a good news grab.

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